2018 Fantasy Football Draft in Hindsight: Best Draft Position

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When it comes to our annual fantasy drafts, we likely all have a preferred spot we’d like to start based on gut feelings of who will be there in the first round. For this past 2018 fantasy season, you may have really wanted that first pick to get Todd Gurley. You may have been happy to be anywhere in the top 3 because you expected Gurley, Leveon Bell, and David Johnson to all perform about the same (yikes). If you were a fan of the “no RB” draft strategy then you likely wanted to pick towards the end of the first round so you could grab two elite WR’s back-to-back.

Regardless of how you felt about draft position, I was wondering what were actually the best draft positions in the 2018 draft and how much draft position really mattered.

The Methodology

There could be multiple ways to approach this problem, so let’s share the methods that were used to get our results. The overall idea here is to see how a fantasy team would fare playing the 2018 season with only players they drafted. No trades or waiver pickups.

Draft Simulation Methodology

In order to simulate fantasy drafts, I have to use the average draft position (ADP) of each player in the 2018 draft. I found this by aggregating the .5 PPR ADP from a few fantasy football platforms prior to week 1 games (ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, NFL.com, and a few others). Using this list we can determine what the average team drafted at each position looks like.

So the draft logic for each team looks something like this –

  1. Each team will take the best player available in the draft ranked by their ADP
  2. Each team must draft each position with the following minimum/maximum ranges – QB’s 1-2, RB/WR 3-7, TE/DST/K 1-2. These ranges simulate the average draft strategy as very few players would prefer not to have more than 2 TE/DST/K and most would not feel safe drafting only 2 RB/WR’s.
  3. Therefor in the later rounds, teams may forgo the best overall player by ADP to get the best player that fits their roster requirements.
  4. This is a snake draft of course, so in a 10-team draft the team who picks 1st doesn’t pick again until the 20th pick, whereas the 10th overall pick will then start the 2nd round and pick the 11th player.

This does a pretty good job at getting realistically drafted teams. Can you predict which draft positions are better or worse than others?

Scoring Methodology

To rank the draft positions I’ll use two key metrics. Overall points, and “starter points”.

Overall points are pretty straight forward – simply sum up all of the fantasy points that the 16 drafted players scored throughout the 16 week 2018 NFL season. The 17th week of the NFL season isn’t used because many starters sit that week and most fantasy leagues are over by then.

Any players that become injured would have limited games and stop contributing points throughout the season, so this isn’t meant to simulate an entire true fantasy league. Remember, we’re interested in how strong of a team each drafting position alone holds.

When calculating starter points, we will consider a few more factors. It’s calculated by doing the following-

  • Take each player’s average point per game.
  • Fill 16 weeks worth of games with the top performing players in the 9 starter positions. Starter positions are
    1 QB/TE/DST/K, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
  • Bench players are not always used.

This lets us factor in injuries and replacements. For example, Cooper Kupp would fill a starting WR (or flex) spot for 8 games with his 14.3 PPG (he was injured and missed the rest of the season). The next best available player(s) would take his starter spot for the remaining 8 games.

By assuming perfect play based on average points per game, we should be simulating the average fantasy season for each of these teams much more closely than an approach where we have each team play the perfect lineup every week. Knowing when to bench a “boom-or-bust” player like Tyreek Hill would be a huge advantage, but an unrealistic one as very few teams would ever bench him.

Now that we covered how this is all setup, let’s take a look at the results.

The Best Draft Positions for 10-Team Fantasy Football Leagues

We’re going to show each team’s roster, but first let’s talk a bit about what jumps out at us from the chart.

It turns out the best spot to draft in 2018 was the 7th pick. Not only did this position narrowly yield the best starter scores, but it easily had the best bench overall points scored from drafted players.

Why was the 7th spot so successful? Saquon Barkley in the first round gave this team the 3rd highest scoring running back in .5 PPR while being the 6th off the board. In the 2nd round, this team took Dalvin Cook who was solid in the 10 games he was able to play, and a huge boost comes from Tyreek Hill in the 3rd round.

Other key picks were Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp in the 8th and 9th (I’m guessing not many humans would dare to draft both heading into the year), Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th (2nd highest scoring QB), Nick Chubb in the 12th, and Kenny Golladay in the 14th. That’s a lot of great value picks!

Moving on to teams that fared poorly, positions 2 and 3 performed the worst in the 2018 draft. The median starter score of this group is 1825.5 points, and both of these teams underperformed.

Team 2’s issues are obvious – they drafted Le’Veon Bell who ended up sitting the entire season. What’s also terrible is in the 2nd round they draft Gronkowski who only averaged 8.7 points per game all season! The main reason why this team wasn’t dead in the water was they come back and draft Travis Kelce in the 3rd round who was the highest scoring TE of the year in a year when TE scoring was atrocious.

The other reason why Team 2 was able to regain some ground was them picking up Patrick Mahomes in the 12th. Not only was Mahomes the top scoring QB in the league, but he was so by a 72 point margin which let this team make up a lot of ground.

Team 3’s issues were a bit more varied. They take David Johnson in the first round who vastly underperformed on a bad Cardinals team. Although he was taken 3rd overall, there were 13 other players who scored more points throughout the season taken in these first two rounds.

Team 3 took Devonta Freeman in the 2nd who got injured in his 2nd game of the season, and they also drafted Delanie Walker in the 7th round who only got to play in one game. Overall this entire team was just full of underperformers. Kicker Chris Boswell is a good example, he averaged just 6.2 PPG making him the 22nd kicker in 2018 for fantasy points.

Have a look at each team’s roster to see how each pick position shook out.

1st Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Todd Gurley RB 1 342.6 14 24.5
2 Davante Adams WR 20 274.1 15 18.3
3 A.J. Green WR 21 126.4 9 14.0
4 Demaryius Thomas WR 40 127.2 15 8.5
5 Jarvis Landry WR 41 157.9 15 10.5
6 Cam Newton QB 60 282.6 14 20.2
7 Jerick McKinnon RB 61 0 0 0
8 Trey Burton TE 79 114.3 15 7.6
9 Sammy Watkins WR 81 95.1 10 9.5
10 Marlon Mack RB 100 152.3 11 13.8
11 Duke Johnson RB 101 105.6 15 7.0
12 C.J. Anderson RB 120 42 8 5.3
13 Los Angeles Rams DST 121 131 15 8.7
14 Derek Carr QB 135 214.9 15 14.3
15 Matt Breida RB 139 149 14 10.6
16 Robbie Gould K 209 133 15 8.9

2nd Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 LeVeon Bell RB 2 0 0 0
2 Rob Gronkowski TE 19 104.3 12 8.7
3 Travis Kelce TE 22 234.4 15 15.6
4 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 39 229.2 15 15.3
5 Jay Ajayi RB 42 40.9 4 10.2
6 Marshawn Lynch RB 59 71.5 6 11.9
7 Michael Crabtree WR 62 102.7 15 6.8
8 Chris Thompson RB 80 66.2 9 7.4
9 Sony Michel RB 82 130.6 12 10.9
10 Peyton Barber RB 99 133 15 8.9
11 Randall Cobb WR 102 64.2 8 8.0
12 Patrick Mahomes QB 115 399.7 15 26.6
13 DeVante Parker WR 122 48.9 10 4.9
14 Alex Smith QB 130 137.9 10 13.8
15 Los Angeles Chargers DST 151 88 15 5.9
16 Matt Prater K 206 117 15 7.8

3rd Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 David Johnson RB 3 211.4 15 14.1
2 Devonta Freeman RB 18 11.6 2 5.8
3 Mike Evans WR 23 215.8 15 14.4
4 Derrick Henry RB 38 182.7 15 12.2
5 Royce Freeman RB 43 80 13 6.2
6 Dion Lewis RB 58 127.4 15 8.5
7 Delanie Walker TE 63 7.2 1 7.2
8 Julian Edelman WR 78 152.6 11 13.9
9 Jordan Reed TE 83 92.8 13 7.1
10 Jordy Nelson WR 98 112.9 14 8.1
11 Nelson Agholor WR 103 114.9 15 7.7
12 Jared Goff QB 113 286.3 15 19.1
13 Ty Montgomery RB 123 56 12 4.7
14 Marcus Mariota QB 128 175.5 14 12.5
15 Houston Texans DST 152 130 15 8.7
16 Chris Boswell K 205 93.1 15 6.2

4th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Ezekiel Elliott RB 4 290.7 15 19.4
2 Keenan Allen WR 17 203.2 14 14.5
3 Jordan Howard RB 24 146.1 15 9.7
4 Alex Collins RB 37 101.1 10 10.1
5 Lamar Miller RB 44 147.5 13 11.3
6 Evan Engram TE 57 85.2 10 8.5
7 Rex Burkhead RB 64 33 7 4.7
8 Jamaal Williams RB 77 97.4 15 6.5
9 Kirk Cousins QB 84 272.6 15 18.2
10 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 97 47.9 3 16.0
11 Ronald Jones RB 104 0 0 0
12 George Kittle TE 118 189.3 15 12.6
13 Minnesota Vikings DST 129 124 15 8.3
14 D.J. Moore WR 140 119.4 15 8.0
15 Mike Williams WR 142 144.8 15 9.7
16 Harrison Butker K 202 142 15 9.5

5th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Antonio Brown WR 5 271.7 15 18.1
2 Christian McCaffrey RB 16 327.5 15 21.8
3 LeSean McCoy RB 25 98.8 13 7.6
4 Amari Cooper WR 36 174.3 14 12.5
5 Golden Tate WR 45 140.6 14 10.0
6 Chris Hogan WR 56 79.3 15 5.3
7 Tevin Coleman RB 65 165.7 15 11.0
8 Rashaad Penny RB 76 65.3 12 5.4
9 Will Fuller WR 85 90.3 7 12.9
10 Robby Anderson WR 96 127.5 13 9.8
11 Jack Doyle TE 105 47.5 6 7.9
12 Matt Ryan QB 111 325.7 15 21.7
13 Giovani Bernard RB 124 75.9 11 6.9
14 Dak Prescott QB 126 252.2 15 16.8
15 Baltimore Ravens DST 155 120 15 8.0
16 Jake Elliott K 199 116 15 7.7

6th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Alvin Kamara RB 6 313.7 15 20.9
2 Michael Thomas WR 15 247.6 15 16.5
3 Joe Mixon RB 26 210.7 13 16.2
4 Doug Baldwin WR 35 113.1 12 9.4
5 Tom Brady QB 46 254.9 15 17.0
6 Marvin Jones WR 55 98.3 9 10.9
7 Corey Davis WR 66 143.8 15 9.6
8 Kerryon Johnson RB 75 123.4 10 12.3
9 Devin Funchess WR 86 100.9 14 7.2
10 Jamison Crowder WR 95 67.1 8 8.4
11 Sterling Shepard WR 106 139.9 15 9.3
12 Philip Rivers QB 110 277.9 15 18.5
13 Bilal Powell RB 125 54.8 7 7.8
14 Jared Cook TE 148 155.3 15 10.4
15 Denver Broncos DST 166 112 15 7.5
16 Wil Lutz K 195 149 15 9.9

7th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Saquon Barkley RB 7 318.1 15 21.2
2 Dalvin Cook RB 14 124 10 12.4
3 Tyreek Hill WR 27 258.4 15 17.2
4 Larry Fitzgerald WR 34 139.6 15 9.3
5 Allen Robinson WR 47 125.8 13 9.7
6 Russell Wilson QB 54 291 15 19.4
7 Kyle Rudolph TE 67 115.5 15 7.7
8 Robert Woods WR 74 219.1 15 14.6
9 Cooper Kupp WR 87 115.1 8 14.4
10 Ben Roethlisberger QB 93 327.7 15 21.8
11 David Njoku TE 107 108.2 14 7.7
12 Nick Chubb RB 119 181.5 15 12.1
13 Allen Hurns WR 131 46.1 13 3.5
14 Kenny Golladay WR 138 172.1 15 11.5
15 Stephen Gostkowski K 167 130 15 8.7
16 New Orleans Saints DST 182 108 15 7.2

8th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 DeAndre Hopkins WR 8 255.3 15 17.0
2 Julio Jones WR 13 245 15 16.3
3 T.Y. Hilton WR 28 193.9 13 14.9
4 Kenyan Drake RB 33 167.7 15 11.2
5 Deshaun Watson QB 48 309.9 15 20.7
6 Greg Olsen TE 53 66.6 9 7.4
7 Marquise Goodwin WR 68 75.9 11 6.9
8 Carson Wentz QB 73 192.9 11 17.5
9 Tarik Cohen RB 88 188.2 15 12.5
10 Isaiah Crowell RB 94 130.2 13 10.0
11 James White RB 108 218.2 15 14.5
12 Kenny Stills WR 117 107.6 14 7.7
13 Tyler Eifert TE 127 31.4 4 7.9
14 Latavius Murray RB 137 119.1 15 7.9
15 Greg Zuerlein K 172 114 10 11.4
16 Pittsburgh Steelers DST 180 102 15 6.8

9th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Kareem Hunt RB 9 217.2 11 19.7
2 Odell Beckham WR 12 191.9 12 16.0
3 Stefon Diggs WR 29 200.6 14 14.3
4 Zach Ertz TE 32 219.3 15 14.6
5 Josh Gordon WR 49 118.2 12 9.9
6 Brandin Cooks WR 52 182.5 14 13.0
7 Drew Brees QB 69 304.3 15 20.3
8 Carlos Hyde RB 72 90.5 13 7.0
9 Pierre Garcon WR 89 46.6 8 5.8
10 Matthew Stafford QB 92 193.7 15 12.9
11 Jacksonville Jaguars DST 109 98 15 6.5
12 Aaron Jones RB 116 158.5 12 13.2
13 Calvin Ridley WR 132 163.1 15 10.9
14 Devontae Booker RB 136 62.9 15 4.2
15 Corey Clement RB 141 70.1 11 6.4
16 Matt Bryant K 190 97 12 8.1

10th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Melvin Gordon RB 10 242.4 11 22.0
2 Leonard Fournette RB 11 109.4 8 13.7
3 Adam Thielen WR 30 245.6 15 16.4
4 Aaron Rodgers QB 31 311.5 15 20.8
5 Jimmy Graham TE 50 99.5 15 6.6
6 Mark Ingram RB 51 126.7 11 11.5
7 Emmanuel Sanders WR 70 162.7 12 13.6
8 Alshon Jeffery WR 71 138.4 12 11.5
9 Andrew Luck QB 90 304.5 15 20.3
10 Chris Carson RB 91 172 13 13.2
11 Adrian Peterson RB 112 179 15 11.9
12 Kelvin Benjamin WR 114 55.1 14 3.9
13 Tyler Lockett WR 133 180 15 12.0
14 Philadelphia Eagles DST 134 81 15 5.4
15 Theo Riddick RB 143 83.6 13 6.4
16 Justin Tucker K 175 145 15 9.7

Notable Undrafted players –

  • QB Mitch Trubisky – 252.8 pts
  • RB James Conner (!) – 241.6 pts
  • DST Chicago Bears – 183 pts
  • TE Eric Ebron – 175.2 pts

The Best Draft Positions for 12-Team Fantasy Football Leagues

In a 12-team league, we see much more variation, much lower average scores. We go from a median of 1825.5 starter score in the 10-team league to 1698.5 in the 12-team league.

What’s interesting is the lows are lower, but the highs are still pretty close to the same. Team 3 was able to completely reverse their luck by getting Travis Kelce instead of Freeman in the 2nd round, and also scoop up Tyreek Hill in the 3rd.

Team 2’s score isn’t quite as bad as it looks. They only draft one QB (Garoppolo) who struggled for 9 games before getting injured. In a real league they would pick up a QB off the waivers to make up some points, but for our purposes we’re just looking at who each team drafted.

Team 11 has the misfortune of drafting two DST’s in rounds 12 and 13. Even bigger of an issue, their skill positions are a complete trainwreck. Only 1 RB/WR/TE scored more than 120 points, and that was Derrick Henry with 182.

1st Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Todd Gurley RB 1 342.6 14 24.5
2 Jordan Howard RB 24 146.1 15 9.7
3 LeSean McCoy RB 25 98.8 13 7.6
4 Deshaun Watson QB 48 309.9 15 20.7
5 Josh Gordon WR 49 118.2 12 9.9
6 Carlos Hyde RB 72 90.5 13 7.0
7 Carson Wentz QB 73 192.9 11 17.5
8 Robby Anderson WR 96 127.5 13 9.8
9 Jordy Nelson WR 98 112.9 14 8.1
10 C.J. Anderson RB 120 42 8 5.3
11 Los Angeles Rams DST 121 131 15 8.7
12 Mohamed Sanu WR 144 132.5 15 8.8
13 LeGarrette Blount RB 145 80 15 5.3
14 Dez Bryant WR 168 0 0 0.0
15 Eric Ebron TE 171 175.2 15 11.7
16 Adam Vinatieri K 215 115 14 8.2

2nd Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 LeVeon Bell RB 2 0 0 0.0
2 Mike Evans WR 23 215.8 15 14.4
3 Joe Mixon RB 26 210.7 13 16.2
4 Allen Robinson WR 47 125.8 13 9.7
5 Jimmy Graham TE 50 99.5 15 6.6
6 Alshon Jeffery WR 71 138.4 12 11.5
7 Robert Woods WR 74 219.1 15 14.6
8 Jamison Crowder WR 95 67.1 8 8.4
9 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 97 47.9 3 16.0
10 Nick Chubb RB 119 181.5 15 12.1
11 DeVante Parker WR 122 48.9 10 4.9
12 Theo Riddick RB 143 83.6 13 6.4
13 Keelan Cole WR 146 63.6 13 4.9
14 Stephen Gostkowski K 167 130 15 8.7
15 Jordan Wilkins RB 169 49.3 13 3.8
16 Tennessee Titans DST 203 103 15 6.9

3rd Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 David Johnson RB 3 211.4 15 14.1
2 Travis Kelce TE 22 234.4 15 15.6
3 Tyreek Hill WR 27 258.4 15 17.2
4 Tom Brady QB 46 254.9 15 17.0
5 Mark Ingram RB 51 126.7 11 11.5
6 Emmanuel Sanders WR 70 162.7 12 13.6
7 Kerryon Johnson RB 75 123.4 10 12.3
8 Isaiah Crowell RB 94 130.2 13 10.0
9 Peyton Barber RB 99 133 15 8.9
10 George Kittle TE 118 189.3 15 12.6
11 Ty Montgomery RB 123 56 12 4.7
12 Mike Williams WR 142 144.8 15 9.7
13 Michael Gallup WR 147 72.7 14 5.2
14 Mitch Trubisky QB 165 252.8 13 19.4
15 Greg Zuerlein K 172 114 10 11.4
16 Chicago Bears DST 196 183 15 12.2

4th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Ezekiel Elliott RB 4 290.7 15 19.4
2 A.J. Green WR 21 126.4 9 14.0
3 T.Y. Hilton WR 28 193.9 13 14.9
4 Golden Tate WR 45 140.6 14 10.0
5 Brandin Cooks WR 52 182.5 14 13.0
6 Drew Brees QB 69 304.3 15 20.3
7 Rashaad Penny RB 76 65.3 12 5.4
8 Ben Roethlisberger QB 93 327.7 15 21.8
9 Marlon Mack RB 100 152.3 11 13.8
10 Kenny Stills WR 117 107.6 14 7.7
11 Giovani Bernard RB 124 75.9 11 6.9
12 Corey Clement RB 141 70.1 11 6.4
13 Jared Cook TE 148 155.3 15 10.4
14 O.J. Howard TE 164 103.5 10 10.4
15 Justin Tucker K 175 145 15 9.7
16 Carolina Panthers DST 187 83 15 5.5

5th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Antonio Brown WR 5 271.7 15 18.1
2 Davante Adams WR 20 274.1 15 18.3
3 Stefon Diggs WR 29 200.6 14 14.3
4 Lamar Miller RB 44 147.5 13 11.3
5 Greg Olsen TE 53 66.6 9 7.4
6 Marquise Goodwin WR 68 75.9 11 6.9
7 Jamaal Williams RB 77 97.4 15 6.5
8 Matthew Stafford QB 92 193.7 15 12.9
9 Duke Johnson RB 101 105.6 15 7.0
10 Aaron Jones RB 116 158.5 12 13.2
11 Bilal Powell RB 125 54.8 7 7.8
12 D.J. Moore WR 140 119.4 15 8.0
13 Alfred Morris RB 149 46.1 10 4.6
14 Cameron Brate TE 161 73 14 5.2
15 Pittsburgh Steelers DST 180 102 15 6.8
16 Mason Crosby K 212 145 15 9.7

6th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Alvin Kamara RB 6 313.7 15 20.9
2 Rob Gronkowski TE 19 104.3 12 8.7
3 Adam Thielen WR 30 245.6 15 16.4
4 Royce Freeman RB 43 80 13 6.2
5 Russell Wilson QB 54 291 15 19.4
6 Kyle Rudolph TE 67 115.5 15 7.7
7 Julian Edelman WR 78 152.6 11 13.9
8 Chris Carson RB 91 172 13 13.2
9 Randall Cobb WR 102 64.2 8 8.0
10 Patrick Mahomes QB 115 399.7 15 26.6
11 Minnesota Vikings DST 129 124 15 8.3
12 Matt Breida RB 139 149 14 10.6
13 Rishard Matthews WR 150 4.9 6 0.8
14 Denver Broncos DST 166 112 15 7.5
15 Doug Martin RB 170 102.3 15 6.8
16 Robbie Gould K 209 133 15 8.9

7th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Saquon Barkley RB 7 318.1 15 21.2
2 Devonta Freeman RB 18 11.6 2 5.8
3 Aaron Rodgers QB 31 311.5 15 20.8
4 Jay Ajayi RB 42 40.9 4 10.2
5 Marvin Jones WR 55 98.3 9 10.9
6 Corey Davis WR 66 143.8 15 9.6
7 Trey Burton TE 79 114.3 15 7.6
8 Andrew Luck QB 90 304.5 15 20.3
9 Nelson Agholor WR 103 114.9 15 7.7
10 Kelvin Benjamin WR 114 55.1 14 3.9
11 Tyler Eifert TE 127 31.4 4 7.9
12 Kenny Golladay WR 138 172.1 15 11.5
13 Los Angeles Chargers DST 151 88 15 5.9
14 Chris Godwin WR 163 129.3 15 8.6
15 Courtland Sutton WR 173 112.3 15 7.5
16 Matt Prater K 206 117 15 7.8

8th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 DeAndre Hopkins WR 8 255.3 15 17.0
2 Keenan Allen WR 17 203.2 14 14.5
3 Zach Ertz TE 32 219.3 15 14.6
4 Jarvis Landry WR 41 157.9 15 10.5
5 Chris Hogan WR 56 79.3 15 5.3
6 Tevin Coleman RB 65 165.7 15 11.0
7 Chris Thompson RB 80 66.2 9 7.4
8 Pierre Garcon WR 89 46.6 8 5.8
9 Ronald Jones RB 104 0 0 0.0
10 Jared Goff QB 113 286.3 15 19.1
11 Dak Prescott QB 126 252.2 15 16.8
12 Latavius Murray RB 137 119.1 15 7.9
13 Houston Texans DST 152 130 15 8.7
14 Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE 160 20.5 5 4.1
15 Danny Amendola WR 177 93.3 14 6.7
16 Chris Boswell K 205 93.1 15 6.2

9th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Kareem Hunt RB 9 217.2 11 19.7
2 Christian McCaffrey RB 16 327.5 15 21.8
3 Kenyan Drake RB 33 167.7 15 11.2
4 Demaryius Thomas WR 40 127.2 15 8.5
5 Evan Engram TE 57 85.2 10 8.5
6 Rex Burkhead RB 64 33 7 4.7
7 Sammy Watkins WR 81 95.1 10 9.5
8 Tarik Cohen RB 88 188.2 15 12.5
9 Jack Doyle TE 105 47.5 6 7.9
10 Adrian Peterson RB 112 179 15 11.9
11 Marcus Mariota QB 128 175.5 14 12.5
12 Derek Carr QB 135 214.9 15 14.3
13 Josh Doctson WR 153 82.9 14 5.9
14 DeSean Jackson WR 162 130.8 12 10.9
15 New Orleans Saints DST 182 108 15 7.2
16 Harrison Butker K 202 142 15 9.5

10th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Melvin Gordon RB 10 242.4 11 22.0
2 Michael Thomas WR 15 247.6 15 16.5
3 Larry Fitzgerald WR 34 139.6 15 9.3
4 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 39 229.2 15 15.3
5 Dion Lewis RB 58 127.4 15 8.5
6 Delanie Walker TE 63 7.2 1 7.2
7 Sony Michel RB 82 130.6 12 10.9
8 Cooper Kupp WR 87 115.1 8 14.4
9 Sterling Shepard WR 106 139.9 15 9.3
10 Matt Ryan QB 111 325.7 15 21.7
11 Alex Smith QB 130 137.9 10 13.8
12 Devontae Booker RB 136 62.9 15 4.2
13 Charles Clay TE 154 26.9 11 2.4
14 Cameron Meredith WR 159 19.9 3 6.6
15 New England Patriots DST 183 112 15 7.5
16 Jake Elliott K 199 116 15 7.7

11th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Leonard Fournette RB 11 109.4 8 13.7
2 Dalvin Cook RB 14 124 10 12.4
3 Doug Baldwin WR 35 113.1 12 9.4
4 Derrick Henry RB 38 182.7 15 12.2
5 Marshawn Lynch RB 59 71.5 6 11.9
6 Michael Crabtree WR 62 102.7 15 6.8
7 Jordan Reed TE 83 92.8 13 7.1
8 Devin Funchess WR 86 100.9 14 7.2
9 David Njoku TE 107 108.2 14 7.7
10 Philip Rivers QB 110 277.9 15 18.5
11 Allen Hurns WR 131 46.1 13 3.5
12 Philadelphia Eagles DST 134 81 15 5.4
13 Baltimore Ravens DST 155 120 15 8.0
14 John Brown WR 158 121.7 15 8.1
15 Eli Manning QB 174 221.8 15 14.8
16 Wil Lutz K 195 149 15 9.9

12th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round Player Position ADP Total Points Games Played PPG
1 Odell Beckham WR 12 191.9 12 16.0
2 Julio Jones WR 13 245 15 16.3
3 Amari Cooper WR 36 174.3 14 12.5
4 Alex Collins RB 37 101.1 10 10.1
5 Cam Newton QB 60 282.6 14 20.2
6 Jerick McKinnon RB 61 0 0 0.0
7 Kirk Cousins QB 84 272.6 15 18.2
8 Will Fuller WR 85 90.3 7 12.9
9 James White RB 108 218.2 15 14.5
10 Jacksonville Jaguars DST 109 98 15 6.5
11 Calvin Ridley WR 132 163.1 15 10.9
12 Tyler Lockett WR 133 180 15 12.0
13 Ben Watson TE 156 0 0 0.0
14 Anthony Miller WR 157 103 14 7.4
15 Austin Ekeler RB 179 137.5 13 10.6
16 Matt Bryant K 190 97 12 8.1

Notable Undrafted Players

  • RB James Conner (!!!) – 241.6 pts (Austin Ekeler was the last RB taken with ADP 179. The next RB’s were Frank Gore at 188 and James Conner at 200)
  • RB TJ Yeldon – 145.6 pts

What Does This Show?

I think you can use this data to confirm any of your beliefs about snake draft positions. In a 10-man league most positions are pretty even. Early-round injuries do make a huge impact that without wise waiver pickups would be extremely hard to make up.

12-team drafts are much more all over the board, but what really stands out is how badly an injury to a top pick hurts a team. The lowest scoring teams all had top 2 picks with injury/lockout issues – Team 2 with LeVeon Bell, Team 7 with Freeman in the 2nd round, and Team 11’s first two picks of Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette.

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