2018 Fantasy Football Draft in Hindsight: Best Draft Position

When it comes to our annual fantasy drafts, we likely all have a preferred spot we’d like to start based on gut feelings of who will be there in the first round. For this past 2018 fantasy season, you may have really wanted that first pick to get Todd Gurley. You may have been happy to be anywhere in the top 3 because you expected Gurley, Leveon Bell, and David Johnson to all perform about the same (yikes). If you were a fan of the “no RB” draft strategy then you likely wanted to pick towards the end of the first round so you could grab two elite WR’s back-to-back.

Regardless of how you felt about draft position, I was wondering what were actually the best draft positions in the 2018 draft and how much draft position really mattered.

The Methodology

There could be multiple ways to approach this problem, so let’s share the methods that were used to get our results. The overall idea here is to see how a fantasy team would fare playing the 2018 season with only players they drafted. No trades or waiver pickups.

Draft Simulation Methodology

In order to simulate fantasy drafts, I have to use the average draft position (ADP) of each player in the 2018 draft. I found this by aggregating the .5 PPR ADP from a few fantasy football platforms prior to week 1 games (ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, NFL.com, and a few others). Using this list we can determine what the average team drafted at each position looks like.

So the draft logic for each team looks something like this –

Each team will take the best player available in the draft ranked by their ADP
Each team must draft each position with the following minimum/maximum ranges – QB’s 1-2, RB/WR 3-7, TE/DST/K 1-2. These ranges simulate the average draft strategy as very few players would prefer not to have more than 2 TE/DST/K and most would not feel safe drafting only 2 RB/WR’s.
Therefor in the later rounds, teams may forgo the best overall player by ADP to get the best player that fits their roster requirements.
This is a snake draft of course, so in a 10-team draft the team who picks 1st doesn’t pick again until the 20th pick, whereas the 10th overall pick will then start the 2nd round and pick the 11th player.

This does a pretty good job at getting realistically drafted teams. Can you predict which draft positions are better or worse than others?

Scoring Methodology

To rank the draft positions I’ll use two key metrics. Overall points, and “starter points”.

Overall points are pretty straight forward – simply sum up all of the fantasy points that the 16 drafted players scored throughout the 16 week 2018 NFL season. The 17th week of the NFL season isn’t used because many starters sit that week and most fantasy leagues are over by then.

Any players that become injured would have limited games and stop contributing points throughout the season, so this isn’t meant to simulate an entire true fantasy league. Remember, we’re interested in how strong of a team each drafting position alone holds.

When calculating starter points, we will consider a few more factors. It’s calculated by doing the following-

Take each player’s average point per game.
Fill 16 weeks worth of games with the top performing players in the 9 starter positions. Starter positions are
1 QB/TE/DST/K, 2 RB, 2 WR, and 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE).
Bench players are not always used.

This lets us factor in injuries and replacements. For example, Cooper Kupp would fill a starting WR (or flex) spot for 8 games with his 14.3 PPG (he was injured and missed the rest of the season). The next best available player(s) would take his starter spot for the remaining 8 games.

By assuming perfect play based on average points per game, we should be simulating the average fantasy season for each of these teams much more closely than an approach where we have each team play the perfect lineup every week. Knowing when to bench a “boom-or-bust” player like Tyreek Hill would be a huge advantage, but an unrealistic one as very few teams would ever bench him.

Now that we covered how this is all setup, let’s take a look at the results.

The Best Draft Positions for 10-Team Fantasy Football Leagues

We’re going to show each team’s roster, but first let’s talk a bit about what jumps out at us from the chart.

It turns out the best spot to draft in 2018 was the 7th pick. Not only did this position narrowly yield the best starter scores, but it easily had the best bench overall points scored from drafted players.

Why was the 7th spot so successful? Saquon Barkley in the first round gave this team the 3rd highest scoring running back in .5 PPR while being the 6th off the board. In the 2nd round, this team took Dalvin Cook who was solid in the 10 games he was able to play, and a huge boost comes from Tyreek Hill in the 3rd round.

Other key picks were Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp in the 8th and 9th (I’m guessing not many humans would dare to draft both heading into the year), Ben Roethlisberger in the 10th (2nd highest scoring QB), Nick Chubb in the 12th, and Kenny Golladay in the 14th. That’s a lot of great value picks!

Moving on to teams that fared poorly, positions 2 and 3 performed the worst in the 2018 draft. The median starter score of this group is 1825.5 points, and both of these teams underperformed.

Team 2’s issues are obvious – they drafted Le’Veon Bell who ended up sitting the entire season. What’s also terrible is in the 2nd round they draft Gronkowski who only averaged 8.7 points per game all season! The main reason why this team wasn’t dead in the water was they come back and draft Travis Kelce in the 3rd round who was the highest scoring TE of the year in a year when TE scoring was atrocious.

The other reason why Team 2 was able to regain some ground was them picking up Patrick Mahomes in the 12th. Not only was Mahomes the top scoring QB in the league, but he was so by a 72 point margin which let this team make up a lot of ground.

Team 3’s issues were a bit more varied. They take David Johnson in the first round who vastly underperformed on a bad Cardinals team. Although he was taken 3rd overall, there were 13 other players who scored more points throughout the season taken in these first two rounds.

Team 3 took Devonta Freeman in the 2nd who got injured in his 2nd game of the season, and they also drafted Delanie Walker in the 7th round who only got to play in one game. Overall this entire team was just full of underperformers. Kicker Chris Boswell is a good example, he averaged just 6.2 PPG making him the 22nd kicker in 2018 for fantasy points.

Have a look at each team’s roster to see how each pick position shook out.

1st Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Todd Gurley	RB	1	342.6	14	24.5
2	Davante Adams	WR	20	274.1	15	18.3
3	A.J. Green	WR	21	126.4	9	14.0
4	Demaryius Thomas	WR	40	127.2	15	8.5
5	Jarvis Landry	WR	41	157.9	15	10.5
6	Cam Newton	QB	60	282.6	14	20.2
7	Jerick McKinnon	RB	61	0	0	0
8	Trey Burton	TE	79	114.3	15	7.6
9	Sammy Watkins	WR	81	95.1	10	9.5
10	Marlon Mack	RB	100	152.3	11	13.8
11	Duke Johnson	RB	101	105.6	15	7.0
12	C.J. Anderson	RB	120	42	8	5.3
13	Los Angeles Rams	DST	121	131	15	8.7
14	Derek Carr	QB	135	214.9	15	14.3
15	Matt Breida	RB	139	149	14	10.6
16	Robbie Gould	K	209	133	15	8.9

2nd Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	LeVeon Bell	RB	2	0	0	0
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	19	104.3	12	8.7
3	Travis Kelce	TE	22	234.4	15	15.6
4	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	39	229.2	15	15.3
5	Jay Ajayi	RB	42	40.9	4	10.2
6	Marshawn Lynch	RB	59	71.5	6	11.9
7	Michael Crabtree	WR	62	102.7	15	6.8
8	Chris Thompson	RB	80	66.2	9	7.4
9	Sony Michel	RB	82	130.6	12	10.9
10	Peyton Barber	RB	99	133	15	8.9
11	Randall Cobb	WR	102	64.2	8	8.0
12	Patrick Mahomes	QB	115	399.7	15	26.6
13	DeVante Parker	WR	122	48.9	10	4.9
14	Alex Smith	QB	130	137.9	10	13.8
15	Los Angeles Chargers	DST	151	88	15	5.9
16	Matt Prater	K	206	117	15	7.8

3rd Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	David Johnson	RB	3	211.4	15	14.1
2	Devonta Freeman	RB	18	11.6	2	5.8
3	Mike Evans	WR	23	215.8	15	14.4
4	Derrick Henry	RB	38	182.7	15	12.2
5	Royce Freeman	RB	43	80	13	6.2
6	Dion Lewis	RB	58	127.4	15	8.5
7	Delanie Walker	TE	63	7.2	1	7.2
8	Julian Edelman	WR	78	152.6	11	13.9
9	Jordan Reed	TE	83	92.8	13	7.1
10	Jordy Nelson	WR	98	112.9	14	8.1
11	Nelson Agholor	WR	103	114.9	15	7.7
12	Jared Goff	QB	113	286.3	15	19.1
13	Ty Montgomery	RB	123	56	12	4.7
14	Marcus Mariota	QB	128	175.5	14	12.5
15	Houston Texans	DST	152	130	15	8.7
16	Chris Boswell	K	205	93.1	15	6.2

4th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	4	290.7	15	19.4
2	Keenan Allen	WR	17	203.2	14	14.5
3	Jordan Howard	RB	24	146.1	15	9.7
4	Alex Collins	RB	37	101.1	10	10.1
5	Lamar Miller	RB	44	147.5	13	11.3
6	Evan Engram	TE	57	85.2	10	8.5
7	Rex Burkhead	RB	64	33	7	4.7
8	Jamaal Williams	RB	77	97.4	15	6.5
9	Kirk Cousins	QB	84	272.6	15	18.2
10	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	97	47.9	3	16.0
11	Ronald Jones	RB	104	0	0	0
12	George Kittle	TE	118	189.3	15	12.6
13	Minnesota Vikings	DST	129	124	15	8.3
14	D.J. Moore	WR	140	119.4	15	8.0
15	Mike Williams	WR	142	144.8	15	9.7
16	Harrison Butker	K	202	142	15	9.5

5th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Antonio Brown	WR	5	271.7	15	18.1
2	Christian McCaffrey	RB	16	327.5	15	21.8
3	LeSean McCoy	RB	25	98.8	13	7.6
4	Amari Cooper	WR	36	174.3	14	12.5
5	Golden Tate	WR	45	140.6	14	10.0
6	Chris Hogan	WR	56	79.3	15	5.3
7	Tevin Coleman	RB	65	165.7	15	11.0
8	Rashaad Penny	RB	76	65.3	12	5.4
9	Will Fuller	WR	85	90.3	7	12.9
10	Robby Anderson	WR	96	127.5	13	9.8
11	Jack Doyle	TE	105	47.5	6	7.9
12	Matt Ryan	QB	111	325.7	15	21.7
13	Giovani Bernard	RB	124	75.9	11	6.9
14	Dak Prescott	QB	126	252.2	15	16.8
15	Baltimore Ravens	DST	155	120	15	8.0
16	Jake Elliott	K	199	116	15	7.7

6th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Alvin Kamara	RB	6	313.7	15	20.9
2	Michael Thomas	WR	15	247.6	15	16.5
3	Joe Mixon	RB	26	210.7	13	16.2
4	Doug Baldwin	WR	35	113.1	12	9.4
5	Tom Brady	QB	46	254.9	15	17.0
6	Marvin Jones	WR	55	98.3	9	10.9
7	Corey Davis	WR	66	143.8	15	9.6
8	Kerryon Johnson	RB	75	123.4	10	12.3
9	Devin Funchess	WR	86	100.9	14	7.2
10	Jamison Crowder	WR	95	67.1	8	8.4
11	Sterling Shepard	WR	106	139.9	15	9.3
12	Philip Rivers	QB	110	277.9	15	18.5
13	Bilal Powell	RB	125	54.8	7	7.8
14	Jared Cook	TE	148	155.3	15	10.4
15	Denver Broncos	DST	166	112	15	7.5
16	Wil Lutz	K	195	149	15	9.9

7th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Saquon Barkley	RB	7	318.1	15	21.2
2	Dalvin Cook	RB	14	124	10	12.4
3	Tyreek Hill	WR	27	258.4	15	17.2
4	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	34	139.6	15	9.3
5	Allen Robinson	WR	47	125.8	13	9.7
6	Russell Wilson	QB	54	291	15	19.4
7	Kyle Rudolph	TE	67	115.5	15	7.7
8	Robert Woods	WR	74	219.1	15	14.6
9	Cooper Kupp	WR	87	115.1	8	14.4
10	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	93	327.7	15	21.8
11	David Njoku	TE	107	108.2	14	7.7
12	Nick Chubb	RB	119	181.5	15	12.1
13	Allen Hurns	WR	131	46.1	13	3.5
14	Kenny Golladay	WR	138	172.1	15	11.5
15	Stephen Gostkowski	K	167	130	15	8.7
16	New Orleans Saints	DST	182	108	15	7.2

8th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	8	255.3	15	17.0
2	Julio Jones	WR	13	245	15	16.3
3	T.Y. Hilton	WR	28	193.9	13	14.9
4	Kenyan Drake	RB	33	167.7	15	11.2
5	Deshaun Watson	QB	48	309.9	15	20.7
6	Greg Olsen	TE	53	66.6	9	7.4
7	Marquise Goodwin	WR	68	75.9	11	6.9
8	Carson Wentz	QB	73	192.9	11	17.5
9	Tarik Cohen	RB	88	188.2	15	12.5
10	Isaiah Crowell	RB	94	130.2	13	10.0
11	James White	RB	108	218.2	15	14.5
12	Kenny Stills	WR	117	107.6	14	7.7
13	Tyler Eifert	TE	127	31.4	4	7.9
14	Latavius Murray	RB	137	119.1	15	7.9
15	Greg Zuerlein	K	172	114	10	11.4
16	Pittsburgh Steelers	DST	180	102	15	6.8

9th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Kareem Hunt	RB	9	217.2	11	19.7
2	Odell Beckham	WR	12	191.9	12	16.0
3	Stefon Diggs	WR	29	200.6	14	14.3
4	Zach Ertz	TE	32	219.3	15	14.6
5	Josh Gordon	WR	49	118.2	12	9.9
6	Brandin Cooks	WR	52	182.5	14	13.0
7	Drew Brees	QB	69	304.3	15	20.3
8	Carlos Hyde	RB	72	90.5	13	7.0
9	Pierre Garcon	WR	89	46.6	8	5.8
10	Matthew Stafford	QB	92	193.7	15	12.9
11	Jacksonville Jaguars	DST	109	98	15	6.5
12	Aaron Jones	RB	116	158.5	12	13.2
13	Calvin Ridley	WR	132	163.1	15	10.9
14	Devontae Booker	RB	136	62.9	15	4.2
15	Corey Clement	RB	141	70.1	11	6.4
16	Matt Bryant	K	190	97	12	8.1

10th Pick – 2018 10-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Melvin Gordon	RB	10	242.4	11	22.0
2	Leonard Fournette	RB	11	109.4	8	13.7
3	Adam Thielen	WR	30	245.6	15	16.4
4	Aaron Rodgers	QB	31	311.5	15	20.8
5	Jimmy Graham	TE	50	99.5	15	6.6
6	Mark Ingram	RB	51	126.7	11	11.5
7	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	70	162.7	12	13.6
8	Alshon Jeffery	WR	71	138.4	12	11.5
9	Andrew Luck	QB	90	304.5	15	20.3
10	Chris Carson	RB	91	172	13	13.2
11	Adrian Peterson	RB	112	179	15	11.9
12	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	114	55.1	14	3.9
13	Tyler Lockett	WR	133	180	15	12.0
14	Philadelphia Eagles	DST	134	81	15	5.4
15	Theo Riddick	RB	143	83.6	13	6.4
16	Justin Tucker	K	175	145	15	9.7

Notable Undrafted players –

QB Mitch Trubisky – 252.8 pts
RB James Conner (!) – 241.6 pts
DST Chicago Bears – 183 pts
TE Eric Ebron – 175.2 pts

The Best Draft Positions for 12-Team Fantasy Football Leagues

In a 12-team league, we see much more variation, much lower average scores. We go from a median of 1825.5 starter score in the 10-team league to 1698.5 in the 12-team league.

What’s interesting is the lows are lower, but the highs are still pretty close to the same. Team 3 was able to completely reverse their luck by getting Travis Kelce instead of Freeman in the 2nd round, and also scoop up Tyreek Hill in the 3rd.

Team 2’s score isn’t quite as bad as it looks. They only draft one QB (Garoppolo) who struggled for 9 games before getting injured. In a real league they would pick up a QB off the waivers to make up some points, but for our purposes we’re just looking at who each team drafted.

Team 11 has the misfortune of drafting two DST’s in rounds 12 and 13. Even bigger of an issue, their skill positions are a complete trainwreck. Only 1 RB/WR/TE scored more than 120 points, and that was Derrick Henry with 182.

1st Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Todd Gurley	RB	1	342.6	14	24.5
2	Jordan Howard	RB	24	146.1	15	9.7
3	LeSean McCoy	RB	25	98.8	13	7.6
4	Deshaun Watson	QB	48	309.9	15	20.7
5	Josh Gordon	WR	49	118.2	12	9.9
6	Carlos Hyde	RB	72	90.5	13	7.0
7	Carson Wentz	QB	73	192.9	11	17.5
8	Robby Anderson	WR	96	127.5	13	9.8
9	Jordy Nelson	WR	98	112.9	14	8.1
10	C.J. Anderson	RB	120	42	8	5.3
11	Los Angeles Rams	DST	121	131	15	8.7
12	Mohamed Sanu	WR	144	132.5	15	8.8
13	LeGarrette Blount	RB	145	80	15	5.3
14	Dez Bryant	WR	168	0	0	0.0
15	Eric Ebron	TE	171	175.2	15	11.7
16	Adam Vinatieri	K	215	115	14	8.2

2nd Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	LeVeon Bell	RB	2	0	0	0.0
2	Mike Evans	WR	23	215.8	15	14.4
3	Joe Mixon	RB	26	210.7	13	16.2
4	Allen Robinson	WR	47	125.8	13	9.7
5	Jimmy Graham	TE	50	99.5	15	6.6
6	Alshon Jeffery	WR	71	138.4	12	11.5
7	Robert Woods	WR	74	219.1	15	14.6
8	Jamison Crowder	WR	95	67.1	8	8.4
9	Jimmy Garoppolo	QB	97	47.9	3	16.0
10	Nick Chubb	RB	119	181.5	15	12.1
11	DeVante Parker	WR	122	48.9	10	4.9
12	Theo Riddick	RB	143	83.6	13	6.4
13	Keelan Cole	WR	146	63.6	13	4.9
14	Stephen Gostkowski	K	167	130	15	8.7
15	Jordan Wilkins	RB	169	49.3	13	3.8
16	Tennessee Titans	DST	203	103	15	6.9

3rd Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	David Johnson	RB	3	211.4	15	14.1
2	Travis Kelce	TE	22	234.4	15	15.6
3	Tyreek Hill	WR	27	258.4	15	17.2
4	Tom Brady	QB	46	254.9	15	17.0
5	Mark Ingram	RB	51	126.7	11	11.5
6	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	70	162.7	12	13.6
7	Kerryon Johnson	RB	75	123.4	10	12.3
8	Isaiah Crowell	RB	94	130.2	13	10.0
9	Peyton Barber	RB	99	133	15	8.9
10	George Kittle	TE	118	189.3	15	12.6
11	Ty Montgomery	RB	123	56	12	4.7
12	Mike Williams	WR	142	144.8	15	9.7
13	Michael Gallup	WR	147	72.7	14	5.2
14	Mitch Trubisky	QB	165	252.8	13	19.4
15	Greg Zuerlein	K	172	114	10	11.4
16	Chicago Bears	DST	196	183	15	12.2

4th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	4	290.7	15	19.4
2	A.J. Green	WR	21	126.4	9	14.0
3	T.Y. Hilton	WR	28	193.9	13	14.9
4	Golden Tate	WR	45	140.6	14	10.0
5	Brandin Cooks	WR	52	182.5	14	13.0
6	Drew Brees	QB	69	304.3	15	20.3
7	Rashaad Penny	RB	76	65.3	12	5.4
8	Ben Roethlisberger	QB	93	327.7	15	21.8
9	Marlon Mack	RB	100	152.3	11	13.8
10	Kenny Stills	WR	117	107.6	14	7.7
11	Giovani Bernard	RB	124	75.9	11	6.9
12	Corey Clement	RB	141	70.1	11	6.4
13	Jared Cook	TE	148	155.3	15	10.4
14	O.J. Howard	TE	164	103.5	10	10.4
15	Justin Tucker	K	175	145	15	9.7
16	Carolina Panthers	DST	187	83	15	5.5

5th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Antonio Brown	WR	5	271.7	15	18.1
2	Davante Adams	WR	20	274.1	15	18.3
3	Stefon Diggs	WR	29	200.6	14	14.3
4	Lamar Miller	RB	44	147.5	13	11.3
5	Greg Olsen	TE	53	66.6	9	7.4
6	Marquise Goodwin	WR	68	75.9	11	6.9
7	Jamaal Williams	RB	77	97.4	15	6.5
8	Matthew Stafford	QB	92	193.7	15	12.9
9	Duke Johnson	RB	101	105.6	15	7.0
10	Aaron Jones	RB	116	158.5	12	13.2
11	Bilal Powell	RB	125	54.8	7	7.8
12	D.J. Moore	WR	140	119.4	15	8.0
13	Alfred Morris	RB	149	46.1	10	4.6
14	Cameron Brate	TE	161	73	14	5.2
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	DST	180	102	15	6.8
16	Mason Crosby	K	212	145	15	9.7

6th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Alvin Kamara	RB	6	313.7	15	20.9
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	19	104.3	12	8.7
3	Adam Thielen	WR	30	245.6	15	16.4
4	Royce Freeman	RB	43	80	13	6.2
5	Russell Wilson	QB	54	291	15	19.4
6	Kyle Rudolph	TE	67	115.5	15	7.7
7	Julian Edelman	WR	78	152.6	11	13.9
8	Chris Carson	RB	91	172	13	13.2
9	Randall Cobb	WR	102	64.2	8	8.0
10	Patrick Mahomes	QB	115	399.7	15	26.6
11	Minnesota Vikings	DST	129	124	15	8.3
12	Matt Breida	RB	139	149	14	10.6
13	Rishard Matthews	WR	150	4.9	6	0.8
14	Denver Broncos	DST	166	112	15	7.5
15	Doug Martin	RB	170	102.3	15	6.8
16	Robbie Gould	K	209	133	15	8.9

7th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Saquon Barkley	RB	7	318.1	15	21.2
2	Devonta Freeman	RB	18	11.6	2	5.8
3	Aaron Rodgers	QB	31	311.5	15	20.8
4	Jay Ajayi	RB	42	40.9	4	10.2
5	Marvin Jones	WR	55	98.3	9	10.9
6	Corey Davis	WR	66	143.8	15	9.6
7	Trey Burton	TE	79	114.3	15	7.6
8	Andrew Luck	QB	90	304.5	15	20.3
9	Nelson Agholor	WR	103	114.9	15	7.7
10	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	114	55.1	14	3.9
11	Tyler Eifert	TE	127	31.4	4	7.9
12	Kenny Golladay	WR	138	172.1	15	11.5
13	Los Angeles Chargers	DST	151	88	15	5.9
14	Chris Godwin	WR	163	129.3	15	8.6
15	Courtland Sutton	WR	173	112.3	15	7.5
16	Matt Prater	K	206	117	15	7.8

8th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	8	255.3	15	17.0
2	Keenan Allen	WR	17	203.2	14	14.5
3	Zach Ertz	TE	32	219.3	15	14.6
4	Jarvis Landry	WR	41	157.9	15	10.5
5	Chris Hogan	WR	56	79.3	15	5.3
6	Tevin Coleman	RB	65	165.7	15	11.0
7	Chris Thompson	RB	80	66.2	9	7.4
8	Pierre Garcon	WR	89	46.6	8	5.8
9	Ronald Jones	RB	104	0	0	0.0
10	Jared Goff	QB	113	286.3	15	19.1
11	Dak Prescott	QB	126	252.2	15	16.8
12	Latavius Murray	RB	137	119.1	15	7.9
13	Houston Texans	DST	152	130	15	8.7
14	Austin Seferian-Jenkins	TE	160	20.5	5	4.1
15	Danny Amendola	WR	177	93.3	14	6.7
16	Chris Boswell	K	205	93.1	15	6.2

9th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Kareem Hunt	RB	9	217.2	11	19.7
2	Christian McCaffrey	RB	16	327.5	15	21.8
3	Kenyan Drake	RB	33	167.7	15	11.2
4	Demaryius Thomas	WR	40	127.2	15	8.5
5	Evan Engram	TE	57	85.2	10	8.5
6	Rex Burkhead	RB	64	33	7	4.7
7	Sammy Watkins	WR	81	95.1	10	9.5
8	Tarik Cohen	RB	88	188.2	15	12.5
9	Jack Doyle	TE	105	47.5	6	7.9
10	Adrian Peterson	RB	112	179	15	11.9
11	Marcus Mariota	QB	128	175.5	14	12.5
12	Derek Carr	QB	135	214.9	15	14.3
13	Josh Doctson	WR	153	82.9	14	5.9
14	DeSean Jackson	WR	162	130.8	12	10.9
15	New Orleans Saints	DST	182	108	15	7.2
16	Harrison Butker	K	202	142	15	9.5

10th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Melvin Gordon	RB	10	242.4	11	22.0
2	Michael Thomas	WR	15	247.6	15	16.5
3	Larry Fitzgerald	WR	34	139.6	15	9.3
4	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	39	229.2	15	15.3
5	Dion Lewis	RB	58	127.4	15	8.5
6	Delanie Walker	TE	63	7.2	1	7.2
7	Sony Michel	RB	82	130.6	12	10.9
8	Cooper Kupp	WR	87	115.1	8	14.4
9	Sterling Shepard	WR	106	139.9	15	9.3
10	Matt Ryan	QB	111	325.7	15	21.7
11	Alex Smith	QB	130	137.9	10	13.8
12	Devontae Booker	RB	136	62.9	15	4.2
13	Charles Clay	TE	154	26.9	11	2.4
14	Cameron Meredith	WR	159	19.9	3	6.6
15	New England Patriots	DST	183	112	15	7.5
16	Jake Elliott	K	199	116	15	7.7

11th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Leonard Fournette	RB	11	109.4	8	13.7
2	Dalvin Cook	RB	14	124	10	12.4
3	Doug Baldwin	WR	35	113.1	12	9.4
4	Derrick Henry	RB	38	182.7	15	12.2
5	Marshawn Lynch	RB	59	71.5	6	11.9
6	Michael Crabtree	WR	62	102.7	15	6.8
7	Jordan Reed	TE	83	92.8	13	7.1
8	Devin Funchess	WR	86	100.9	14	7.2
9	David Njoku	TE	107	108.2	14	7.7
10	Philip Rivers	QB	110	277.9	15	18.5
11	Allen Hurns	WR	131	46.1	13	3.5
12	Philadelphia Eagles	DST	134	81	15	5.4
13	Baltimore Ravens	DST	155	120	15	8.0
14	John Brown	WR	158	121.7	15	8.1
15	Eli Manning	QB	174	221.8	15	14.8
16	Wil Lutz	K	195	149	15	9.9

12th Pick – 2018 12-Team .5PPR

Round	Player	Position	ADP	Total Points	Games Played	PPG
1	Odell Beckham	WR	12	191.9	12	16.0
2	Julio Jones	WR	13	245	15	16.3
3	Amari Cooper	WR	36	174.3	14	12.5
4	Alex Collins	RB	37	101.1	10	10.1
5	Cam Newton	QB	60	282.6	14	20.2
6	Jerick McKinnon	RB	61	0	0	0.0
7	Kirk Cousins	QB	84	272.6	15	18.2
8	Will Fuller	WR	85	90.3	7	12.9
9	James White	RB	108	218.2	15	14.5
10	Jacksonville Jaguars	DST	109	98	15	6.5
11	Calvin Ridley	WR	132	163.1	15	10.9
12	Tyler Lockett	WR	133	180	15	12.0
13	Ben Watson	TE	156	0	0	0.0
14	Anthony Miller	WR	157	103	14	7.4
15	Austin Ekeler	RB	179	137.5	13	10.6
16	Matt Bryant	K	190	97	12	8.1

Notable Undrafted Players

RB James Conner (!!!) – 241.6 pts (Austin Ekeler was the last RB taken with ADP 179. The next RB’s were Frank Gore at 188 and James Conner at 200)
RB TJ Yeldon – 145.6 pts

What Does This Show?

I think you can use this data to confirm any of your beliefs about snake draft positions. In a 10-man league most positions are pretty even. Early-round injuries do make a huge impact that without wise waiver pickups would be extremely hard to make up.

12-team drafts are much more all over the board, but what really stands out is how badly an injury to a top pick hurts a team. The lowest scoring teams all had top 2 picks with injury/lockout issues – Team 2 with LeVeon Bell, Team 7 with Freeman in the 2nd round, and Team 11’s first two picks of Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette.